Albieri A., M.Carrieri, P.Angelini, F.Baldacchini, C.Venturelli, S.Mascali Zeo, R.Bellini
17th European SOVE Conference,
13-17th september 2010, Wroclaw, Poland.
Outbreak risk for Chikungunya (CHIKV) and Dengue (DENV) viruses is influenced by different parameters among which the distribution and density of the vector population.
The basic reproduction number R0 , i.e. the number of secondary cases produced by one initial 0 case in a completely susceptible population, is usually used to create epidemiologic risk maps.
The present study was carried out within the framework of the Emilia-Romagna Aedes albopictus monitoring and control program with the aim to create epidemic risk maps and cluster maps for CHIKV and DENV using R0 model-based and data collected by means of 2606 ovitraps positioned in the urban areas of 248 municipalities. Ovitraps were positioned in each urban area following standard criteria at a mean distance varying in the range 200-600 m, checked weekly from May to October 2009. The statistical model used to calculate the mean egg threshold corresponding to R0 >1 (outbreak risk) was developed on data obtained in a 0 study conducted in 2008 in four cities where a Chikungunya epidemic occurred in the summer 2007.